03 Sep Why Are US Troops Still Dying in Iraq 21 Years After “Mission Accomplished”?

By Sebastian Cano Madariaga

On May 1, 2024, the world reflected on the 21st anniversary of George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” speech, delivered aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. In his address, Bush announced that “major combat operations in Iraq have ended, and the United States and our allies have prevailed.” Yet, more than two decades later, US troops remain in Iraq, and the question persists: Why are American soldiers still dying in Iraq despite the declaration of victory and years of attempted stabilization?

The Immediate Aftermath: Insurgency and Sectarian Violence

Bush’s declaration of victory was premature, as the cessation of major combat operations against Saddam Hussein’s conventional forces gave way to a brutal and protracted insurgency. The years following the “Mission Accomplished” speech saw Iraq descend into chaos, driven by deep-seated sectarian divides that the US and its allies struggled to manage.

From 2003 to 2007, the insurgency inflicted heavy casualties on US forces, with more than 800 American soldiers killed in action annually during this period. The insurgents, employing guerrilla tactics and exploiting the fragmented political landscape, challenged the US military’s ability to secure the country. This insurgency was a direct response to the power vacuum created by the removal of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent dissolution of the Iraqi military, which left a fractured society vulnerable to extremist ideologies and sectarian conflict.

The Surge: A Temporary Reduction in Violence

In 2007, General David H. Petraeus implemented the “surge” strategy, which involved increasing the number of US troops in Iraq to stabilize Baghdad and suppress the insurgency. While the surge initially led to the bloodiest year of the war, with 901 US casualties, it ultimately contributed to a significant reduction in violence. By 2008, US casualties had dropped to 314, and the situation in Iraq appeared to stabilize as sectarian violence decreased.

However, the relative success of the surge was short-lived. Although US forces managed to reduce violence temporarily, they did not address the underlying political and social issues fueling the conflict. The deep-rooted sectarianism, the lack of a strong central government, and the influence of external actors like Iran meant that Iraq remained a volatile environment.

The Resurgence of Violence: Why US Troops Are Still in Harm’s Way

Fast forward to late 2023, and the situation in Iraq has once again deteriorated. A new wave of attacks targeted US military installations across Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, reigniting concerns about the safety of American personnel in the region. A significant incident occurred at the al-Asad airbase in August 2024, where seven US personnel were injured in a rocket attack attributed to an Iranian proxy group.This resurgence of violence raises the critical question of why US troops are still dying in Iraq. The answer lies in a combination of factors that have kept the conflict alive and US forces engaged in the region.

The Role of Iranian Influence

One of the primary reasons US troops continue to face danger in Iraq is the ongoing influence of Iran. Since the 2003 invasion, Iran has sought to expand its power in Iraq, using proxy militias to undermine US efforts and assert its dominance. Al Asad airbase, a key US stronghold, has been repeatedly targeted by these militias, with attacks intensifying following the US assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.

Iran’s use of Iraq as a battleground against the US reflects its broader strategy of challenging American influence in the Middle East. The repeated attacks on US bases by Iranian-backed groups are not isolated incidents but part of a sustained effort by Tehran to push the US out of the region. This geopolitical tug-of-war has placed US troops in the crosshairs, making their presence in Iraq increasingly perilous.

The Gaza Conflict and Its Ripple Effects

The conflict between Israel and Hamas, which escalated in October 2023, has further complicated the security situation for US forces in Iraq. The October 7 attack on Israel triggered a series of retaliatory strikes by Iranian proxies against US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. These militias justified their actions as a response to US support for Israel, highlighting the interconnected nature of conflicts in the Middle East.

The involvement of Iranian-backed militias in the Gaza conflict underscores the broader regional dynamics at play. US troops in Iraq are not only dealing with the remnants of the insurgency but are also caught in the middle of a larger conflict involving multiple state and non-state actors. This interconnectedness means that developments in one part of the region can have immediate and violent repercussions elsewhere, putting US forces at continual risk.

The Iraqi Government’s Dilemma and the Future of US Presence

The ongoing violence and the presence of US troops have placed the Iraqi government in a precarious position. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani has publicly called for the withdrawal of US troops following a US retaliatory strike that killed a militia leader. The Iraqi government faces the difficult task of balancing its relationship with both the US and Iran, two powerful influences pulling the country in opposite directions.

Reports suggest that Iraq may formally request the withdrawal of US forces during a state visit to Washington in September 2024. This request will force the Biden administration to make a critical decision: either comply and risk leaving Iraq vulnerable to Iranian influence or maintain a military presence and continue to expose US troops to danger.

Conclusion: The Enduring Question

So, why are US troops still dying in Iraq 21 years after “Mission Accomplished”? The answer lies in the complex and unresolved issues that have plagued Iraq since the US invasion. The premature declaration of victory, the failure to stabilize the country effectively, the persistent influence of external actors like Iran, and the broader geopolitical conflicts of the region have all contributed to the continued presence and vulnerability of US forces.

As Iraq grapples with its future and the US reevaluates its role in the region, the legacy of the “Mission Accomplished” speech serves as a stark reminder that the end of major combat operations does not equate to lasting peace. The question of whether the US can finally extricate itself from this prolonged conflict remains open, with the lives of American soldiers hanging in the balance.

Sebastian Cano Madariaga is a research intern at the Afghanistan Security Institute (ASI) and a Political Science graduate from Buenos Aires, specializing in Public Security. Fluent in English and Spanish, and currently learning Modern Standard Arabic, his interests focus on terrorism and counter-terrorism in the Middle East, particularly Iraq and Iran, as well as public security in Latin America.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of the Afghanistan Security Institute (ASI).